December 2, 2020 - (Brussels) Today three European cycling associations announced a new forecast for the cycling sector which showed that Europeans are expected to buy an extra 10 million bikes per year by 2030, a whopping 47% more than the annual number in 2019. The 30 million per year total will take bike sales to more than twice the number of passenger cars currently registered per year in the EU.
Using an entirely new forecasting approach which analyzed current trends, COVID 19 impacts and government announcements about future cycling investments CIE, CONEBI and ECF have projected both bike and e-bike sales for the next 10 years in 30 countries.
Leading the way in the growth curve are e-bikes which are predicted to grow from 3.7 million bikes sold in 2019 to 17 million in 2030. 2020 numbers suggest that the e-bike market will already end up 23% despite several months of bike shop closures in many countries and severe pressure on supply chains. Because of the current demand and the support already committed by governments in terms of new infrastructure and purchase premiums for e-bikes, the associations believe that the 10 million per year sales mark could be achieved as soon as 2024.
The other breaking news is that the conventional bike market for 2020 is predicted to end recent annual declines where bikes have been replaced by e-bikes. It is forecasted that stability for the next three years will be followed by a slower decline in conventional bike sales because the COVID experience has shown that there is an ongoing demand for conventional bikes when governments deliver safe and enjoyable riding conditions.
Kevin Mayne, CEO of Cycling Industries Europe said “Cycling is one of Europe’s most dynamic industries right now. With these new numbers we are able to show the EU, national governments and the world-wide cycling sector that the European cycling market is the place to invest, to deliver the EU Green Deal, COVID recovery and new green jobs. With this strong collaboration between our associations we can put real evidence in front of investors at every level.”
Manuel Marsilio, CONEBI General Manager, stated “The Bicycle Industry is in transformation and we are seeing a considerable growth in both sales and production of bicycles – in particular e-bikes – over the past years in Europe. To support the industry CONEBI has partnered with CIE and ECF to prepare an up-to-date market forecast that shows how big the market size can be in the coming years. However, such a growth will be possible only with the right regulatory environment and a clear industrial strategy across the EU and beyond.”
The industry associations are working with ECF’s experts in policy analysis to show the relationship between government action, cycle use and sales. Since the beginning of the epidemic in March 2020, ECF’s COVID Measures tracker shows that Europe has spent 1 billion euros on cycling infrastructure and more than 2,300 km of new bike lanes have been built. A new version of the tracker is being supported by the analysis of cycling strategies for all EU countries.
